Wilson: The truth is, it might just be luck

This isn’t a sports column, but in 20 years I’ll be thankful to have watched the careers of Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson and LeBron James. Tim Duncan, too.

The No. 1 pick of the 1997 NBA draft hung it up Monday after 19 seasons only for the San Antonio Spurs. Duncan amassed five titles and three NBA

Finals MVPs, and had 15 All-Star appearances.

He’s the NBA’s Mr. Loyal, playing for one team while James and others played NBA hopscotch to improve title odds. The Spurs, who never had a losing season with Duncan, are the genius organization, with savvy front office moves and the smartest coach in Gregg Popovich. To question either NBA truth is sacrosanct.

Now, this isn’t a sports column; it just uses sports to make a point. That point is, what if we’re wrong, and our unshakeable truths are largely a product of luck?

In the NBA, you want to be at the top, fighting for a championship, or at the bottom, with a chance to draft the next franchise cornerstone. In the middle, you’re not good enough to compete for a title and not bad enough to draft a superstar. The Utah Jazz spent much of the 1990s in the middle, and I can name half a dozen teams there right now.

The Spurs were in the middle — seven consecutive winning seasons, no NBA Finals berth. The wheels fell off in 2006-07, with All-Stars David Robinson and Sean Elliott injured most of the season. They finished 20-62, bad enough to win the draft lottery for Duncan’s services.

Six other teams lost 50-plus games, but the Spurs got the luck. They falter once in 27 years, and are rewarded with one of the 10 best players in league history. Robinson and Elliott would have returned for another winning season, but Duncan pulled San Antonio out of the middle and to its first title in 1999.

The Spurs had a scare in 2000, when Duncan was a free agent. But he stayed. The Spurs kept winning and replaced their talent pool flawlessly, because they were playing with house money. The Spurs could take gambles that other teams couldn’t, because those teams didn’t have Duncan.

Had the Spurs received the No. 2 pick in 1997, and took Keith Van Horn? They win one title, perhaps, but not five. And the Spurs, who previously never kept a coach for more than five years, likely ax Popovich.

Popovich said as much Tuesday when he spoke with reporters.

“I'd be in the Budweiser League someplace in America (without Duncan), fat and still trying to play basketball or coach basketball,” Popovich said. “But he's why I'm standing.”

Now pretend the laughingstock New Jersey Nets picked first. The Nets remain terrible despite the best efforts of Duncan, who bolts in 2000 to join Tracy McGrady and Grant Hill in Orlando. Suddenly, Mr. Loyal starts the super team trend before LeBron James enters high school, and nobody would have blamed him.

The Spurs and Duncan deserve all of their accomplishments, but their great fortune in ending up together can’t be ignored.

In short, whenever considering anything’s place in history, imagine its pivotal moment going somebody else’s way. Maybe you’ll have a deeper appreciation for it.

Just don’t credit a sports column for that mindset. Because this wasn’t a sports column.

Kevin Wilson is managing editor of the Clovis News Journal. He can be contacted at 575-763-3431, ext. 320, or by email:

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